Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
